BitMEX Arthur Hayes Warns: $BTC Won’t Truly Break Until Fed Steps Into Japan Crisis
Arthur Hayes has clearly shifted tone. Just a few months ago he was talking about BTC going to $200k by end of 2026. Now he’s saying BTC’s next real breakout depends on global liquidity, not crypto narratives. Meaning… if there is no new money, there is no real bull run.
Hayes is focused on Japan. The yen keeps getting weaker and Japanese government bond yields remain unstable. If this pressure keeps building, he believes the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to step in and inject liquidity.
When the Fed injects liquidity, its balance sheet grows. Historically, that’s when BTC starts to move for real. Not because of ETFs. Not because of hype. Not because of Twitter noise. But because more dollars chase scarce assets.
Hayes also said he has reduced leverage and is waiting for confirmation. That confirmation comes from the Fed’s weekly balance sheet. If emergency and foreign-currency liquidity lines start rising, he expects BTC’s next major leg up.
Until then, he expects chop, fakeouts, and frustration. So yeah… interesting shift from moon targets to macro patience. Not bearish. Not super bullish. Just realistic.
BTC isn’t waiting on narratives. BTC is waiting on the Fed.
$ETH $VANRY #VIRBNB #FedWatch #TokenizedSilverSurge
