Fechamento dos EUA eleva incerteza, volatilidade e estresse de liquidez. Ativos defensivos ganham força; risco exige cautela. Olho no SOFR–IORB: se abrir, o mercado grita.

🚨 BREAKING: The US government will shut down in 6 days.

Last time this happened, gold and silver made new ATHs.

But if you’re holding stocks or risk assets, be extremely careful.

We’re heading into a total data blackout.

Here are the 4 real threats 👇

1️⃣ Data blackout
No CPI. No jobs reports.
The Fed and risk models go blind.
VIX must reprice higher to reflect uncertainty.

2️⃣ Collateral shock
With existing credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade.
Repo margins spike.
Liquidity gets destroyed.

3️⃣ Liquidity freeze
The RRP buffer is dry.
There is no safety net left.
If dealers start hoarding cash, funding markets seize up.

4️⃣ Recession trigger
Each week of shutdown cuts ~0.2% of GDP.
That’s enough to tip a stalling economy into a technical recession.

📉 During the last major funding stress (March 2020),
the SOFR–IORB spread blew out.
👀 Watch the SOFR–IORB spread.
If it starts gapping, it means private markets are starving for cash while the Fed sits on a pile of it — exactly what we saw in 2020.
This sounds scary — but don’t worry.

$DUSK
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$ZKC
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$AUCTION
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