🚨 85% SHUTDOWN RISK - THE MARKET IS STILL PRETENDING NOTHING IS WRONG

Prediction markets are pricing ~85% probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31.

That’s not political drama.
That’s forward-looking risk pricing — and markets are ignoring it.

If you think a shutdown is “just noise”, here’s the last one:

43 days offline

–2.8% GDP drag

$34B fiscal bleed

670K federal workers furloughed

That’s a macro shock, not a headline.

WHY THE ODDS ARE EXPLODING

The Minneapolis Border Patrol shooting has become a catalyst for DHS funding obstruction in the Senate.

DHS is the choke point.
No DHS funding → partial shutdown → deadline compression → liquidity uncertainty.

This isn’t brinkmanship.
It’s a funding mechanism failure unfolding in real time.

HOW THIS HITS MARKETS (EVERY TIME)

Rates & bonds reprice first (risk premium expansion).

Equities lag (volatility repricing).

Crypto dislocates hardest (leverage + liquidity stress).

Right now, this risk is not priced in.

THE PART PEOPLE DON’T WANT TO HEAR

By the time you get:

headline confirmation clean technical breaks or a “risk-off” consensus the repricing is already done.

Macro shocks don’t reward confirmation.
They punish it.

You can call this politics.
Markets will call it a volatility catalyst.

I’ll post the warning before it hits the tape — not after it’s obvious.