$BTC │Market Overview

Following up on my previous post, price rejected cleanly back into the range after filling the 96–98K imbalance. The subsequent weekly candle opened and sold off directly from the 2025 yearly open, signaling clear acceptance into the lower section of the range.

Currently, we’re seeing a bounce off the 2026 yearly open (I shared my hedge long entry in Discord). Overall, price remains sandwiched between two key POIs.

My next high confluence timing windows for meaningful volatility are March and the start of Q2. We’ve now been ranging for roughly 60 days, and historically these ranges tend to last 2–3 months, which suggests we may still have another month of consolidation before a decisive break occurs.

My current view is that external highs have already been swept, and price is now primarily pushing higher to take out late shorts. As long as we remain below the prior S/R zone at 93.6–94.5K, the range remains bearish. If bearish structure continues on the LTF, 86–85K becomes a high-probability downside target.

Overall, based on my timing model, BTC should determine its next trend direction within 25–35 days or less. I highly doubt an upside breakout unless we see a strong and sustained reclaim of key levels, which, given the sharp 10K sell-off from supply, doesn’t make much sense to me. That type of reaction is not something I’d expect larger players to view as a strong long signal.

We may still see a few exit or relief pumps, but structurally, this remains the framework I’m operating within.