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Could 2026 Trigger a Deep Crypto Bear Market
Bitcoin ended 2025 down 5.7%, challenging expectations tied to traditional four-year cycles.
Experts note institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors now drive price movements more than historical patterns.
While a deep downturn is possible, improved market structure, healthier leverage, and ongoing ETF and treasury demand may limit losses and support a disciplined market recovery.
2026 starts with heightened uncertainty for crypto markets after Bitcoin’s 5.7% decline in 2025 and a sharp 23.7% drop in Q4, its worst quarterly performance since 2018. Analysts are divided on whether this year could bring a severe crypto bear market or if the market’s growing institutionalization could reduce volatility.
Key Risks That Could Trigger a 2026 Bear Market
Despite cautious optimism, experts point to potential triggers for sharper declines. Puckrin highlights tightening liquidity, a prolonged risk-off environment, or coordinated institutional selling. Elkaleh warns that external shocks, such as a US equity sell-off after an AI bubble burst or renewed Fed tightening, could push markets lower. Konstantins Vasilenko of Paybis notes that limited retail participation combined with stalled institutional flows could extend downturns, while Maksym Sakharov of WeFi flags hidden leverage in “safe yield” products or algorithmic stablecoins as systemic risks.
