Bitcoin Breaks Tradition: First Post-Halving Year Ends Lower
▪︎ BTC ended 2025 down, first time in a post-halving year
▪︎ April 2024 halving did not trigger the usual post-halving bull run
▪︎ Bitcoin now ~30% below its all-time high of $126,080
Historical context
▪︎ 2012, 2016, 2020 post-halving years → BTC ended higher
▪︎ Classic 4-year cycle: halving → accumulation → bull run → correction → bear market
▪︎ 2025 breaks the pattern, challenging cycle-based predictions
Why the pattern changed
▪︎ Market has new players: ETFs, institutions, corporate balance sheets
▪︎ $BTC now reacts to macro factors: liquidity, interest rates, regulation, geopolitics
▪︎ Supply dynamics still relevant, but price moves less automatic
Industry take
▪︎ Some argue the 4-year cycle is dead (Vivek Sen, Armando Pantoja)
▪︎ Others say it’s evolving, not gone (Markus Thielen, 10x Research)
▪︎ Halving still matters, but post-halving returns are no longer guaranteed
Takeaway
▪︎ Bitcoin’s post-halving price dynamics are now macro-driven
▪︎ Investors must consider institutional flows, global liquidity, and regulation over historic cycle assumptions
#Bitcoin #HalvingCycle #CryptoMarkets #ArifAlpha
