Historical bull runs in 2017 and 2021 coincided with massive global liquidity injections (QE), proving that “cheap money” is the primary engine of crypto price growth.
Bitcoin has historically bottomed roughly one year before the ISM Manufacturing PMI cycle reaches its floor, suggesting that the real “cycle low” is tied to business recovery.
Despite reaching the “post-halving window,” Bitcoin has faced a 50% drawdown to $63,000 in early 2026 due to stalled macro easing and a “higher-for-longer” Fed interest rate policy.
The ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s legendary 4-year cycle has long captivated investors, often tied to halving events that reduce mining rewards and spark scarcity-driven rallies. However, a recent analysis shared on X by crypto analyst CryptoTice_ challenges this narrative, emphasizing that the cycle’s true driver is alignment with broader economic forces—specifically, business and global liquidity cycles.
Business Cycle Correlation: Using ISM PMI to Map the Next Bull Run
The accompanying chart illustrates this correlation starkly. The top graph plots Bitcoin’s price on a logarithmic scale from 2010 to projected 2028, showing explosive growth phases marked by orange arrows in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Below, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tracks U.S. manufacturing activity, with green arrows highlighting recovery periods where the index climbs above 50, indicating expansion. Red shaded areas denote recessions or contractions. Notably, Bitcoin’s major bull markets have ignited precisely when PMI bottoms out and rebounds, fueled by liquidity injections from central banks during economic recoveries.
CYCLE REALITY CHECK:
The only reason the 4-year Bitcoin cycle ever made sense was because it aligned with the business cycle and global liquidity cycle.
And that cycle has not restarted yet.
No sustained liquidity expansion.
No macro easing.
Without that tailwind, price… pic.twitter.com/eYZsu2kkxi
— Crypto Tice (@CryptoTice_) February 6, 2026
The chart projects a continued PMI uptrend starting around now, but CryptoTice_ warns that the cycle “has not restarted yet.” With no sustained liquidity expansion or macro easing—think Federal Reserve rate cuts or quantitative easing—Bitcoin lacks the tailwind needed for a clean resolution. Global economic headwinds, including persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, have kept central banks cautious. Bitcoin’s price, hovering around recent highs but without breakout momentum, reflects this stagnation.
The “Macro Gap”: Analyzing the 2026 Stall in Global Easing
This perspective shifts focus from rigid halving timelines to fluid macroeconomic indicators. For instance, the 2020-2021 surge coincided with massive stimulus during the COVID-19 recovery, supercharging liquidity. Today, without similar support, investors face prolonged sideways action or even corrections. CryptoTice_ succinctly puts it: “Timing comes from liquidity not the calendar.”
For crypto enthusiasts, this is a call to monitor key metrics like M2 money supply growth and PMI readings closely. While Bitcoin’s fundamentals—adoption by institutions and ETFs—remain strong, the absence of economic green lights could extend the wait for the next parabolic run. In a market prone to hype, grounding expectations in real-world cycles offers a sobering yet strategic edge. As we navigate 2026, patience and data-driven decisions will separate winners from the herd.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
<p>The post BTC’s Macro Pivot: 1 Critical Sign Liquid Cycles Beat Halvings first appeared on Coin Crypto Newz.</p>
