wendy

Cəmi 12 trilyondan çox qlobal bazarlardan iki gündə silinmişdir. Tədricən deyil. Seçici deyil. Və adi dalğalanma kimi yuyulub keçilə biləcək bir şəkildə də deyil.

Bu, qiymətli metallarda və qiymətli kağızlarda sinxron bir çökmə idi - bazarın necə gərgin, açıq və sıxışdırılmış hissələrinin sakitcə necə dəyişdiyini açıq şəkildə göstərən struktur bir geri çəkilmə.
Bu hərəkətin niyə bu qədər şiddətli olduğunu başa düşmək üçün ziyan miqyası ilə başlamaq lazımdır.
Qızıl 16%-dən çox düşdü, təxminən 6,4 trilyon dollar bazar dəyərini silib apardı. Gümüş təxminən 39% çökmüşdür, 2,6 trilyon dolları silib aparır. Platin təxminən 30% düşdü, 235 milyard dollar itirdi, paladyum isə təxminən 25% azalıb, masadan 110 milyard dollar daha götürdü.

Qlobal bazarlar offline olarkən, Vaşinqton sakitcə plug-u çəkdi.
Qismən ABŞ hökumətinin bağlanması artıq qüvvədədir, çünki Nümayəndələr Palatası maliyyə razılaşmasını keçirməkdə uğursuz oldu. Qanunvericilər bazar günü yenidən toplaşmayacaqlar və düzəliş hələ mümkündür, lakin heç nə təmin edilmir.
Çünki bu həftəsonu baş verdi, bazarların real vaxtda reaksiya vermək imkanı olmadı. Tez bir zamanda qiymət dəyişməsi, volatillik sıçrayışı, erkən siqnal olmadı. Bu reaksiya qaçınılmaz deyildi - gecikdi.
Və indi açılışda gəlir.

Dünənki satış təsadüfən başlamadı. Bu, Kevin Warsh'ın Federal Ehtiyatın növbəti sədri olma ehtimalı proqnoz bazarlarında kəskin artdıqdan dərhal sonra başladı.
Bu reaksiya emosional deyildi. Bu, struktural idi.
Bazarlar Warsh'ın tanınmadığı üçün satmırdı. Onlar, onun rekordunu və bunun gələcəkdəki likvidlik üçün nə demək olduğunu bildikləri üçün satırdılar.
Niyə Kevin Warsh Bazarları Narahat Edir
Kevin Warsh ABŞ-ın monetar siyasətində yeni bir sima deyil. O, 2006-dan 2011-ə qədər Federal Ehtiyat Şurasında xidmət etdi və 2008-ci il qlobal maliyyə böhranı zamanı birbaşa iştirak etdi. Lakin Fed-i tərk etdikdən sonra, o, sonrakı illərdə monetar siyasətin necə aparılması ilə bağlı ən açıq tənqidçilərdən biri oldu.

Gümüş indi tarix tərəfindən çox sərt müalicə olunan bir əraziyə keçmişdir.
Sadəcə iki gündə qiymətlər son zirvədən təxminən 30–32% düşmüşdür. Bu sürətdəki hərəkətlər heç vaxt təsadüfi olmur və cari düşməni uzunmüddətli tarixi kontekstdə yerləşdirəndə, mənzərə daha ehtiyatlı olur.
Bu anı həqiqətən fərqləndirən, düşmənin özü deyil, ondan əvvəl nə baş verdiyidir.
Satışdan əvvəl gümüşün aylıq Nisbət Güc İndeksi 95-ə yüksəlmişdir — bu, son altı onillikdə qeydə alınan ikinci ən yüksək göstəricidir. Bu səviyyə istisna olaraq nadirdir. Əslində, bu müasir bazar tarixində yalnız iki dəfə görünmüşdür.

More than $12 trillion was erased from global markets in just two days. Not gradually. Not selectively. And not in a way that can be brushed off as routine volatility.
This was a synchronized breakdown across precious metals and equities — a structural unwind that exposed how stretched, leveraged, and crowded parts of the market had quietly become.
To understand why this move was so violent, you have to start with the scale of the damage.
Gold fell more than 16%, wiping out roughly $6.4 trillion in market value. Silver collapsed nearly 39%, erasing about $2.6 trillion. Platinum dropped close to 30%, losing around $235 billion, while palladium slid roughly 25%, taking another $110 billion off the table.
Equities didn’t escape either. The S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, eliminating about $1.3 trillion. The Nasdaq lost over 3%, destroying roughly $1.4 trillion, and the Russell 2000 gave up another $100 billion.
In total, the loss exceeded the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, and India. That alone should tell you this was not a normal pullback.
So what actually broke the market?
It starts with the fact that metals were already at historic extremes.
Silver had just printed nine consecutive green monthly candles — something that has never happened before. The prior record was eight, and that coincided with major cycle tops. Over the previous 12 months, silver had delivered more than a 3x return, an extraordinary move for an asset with a multi-trillion-dollar market size. At its peak, silver was up roughly 65–70% year to date.
Gold wasn’t far behind. Its rally had turned parabolic, driven largely by expectations of aggressive easing. At those levels, profit-taking wasn’t optional — it was inevitable.
Momentum then did what it always does at the end of a crowded trade: it pulled in late buyers and leverage.
As metals surged, capital rotated in from crypto and equities. But much of that money didn’t go into physical metal. It flowed into futures, options, and paper contracts. The narrative became increasingly one-sided. Silver targets of $150 or even $200 circulated widely, encouraging oversized long positions just as the market was peaking.
When prices finally rolled over, the exit door instantly became too small.
What followed was a classic liquidation cascade.
As silver began to fall, margin calls kicked in. Forced selling pushed prices lower, which triggered more liquidations, which pushed prices lower again. The result was a collapse of more than 35% in a single day — not because traders chose to sell, but because they were forced to.
This dynamic was amplified by the structure of the silver market itself.
Silver is overwhelmingly paper-driven, with estimated paper-to-physical ratios in the 300–350 to 1 range. Hundreds of paper claims exist for every ounce of real metal. During the crash, COMEX prices fell sharply, but physical markets remained elevated. At one point, silver in the U.S. traded near $85–$90, while Shanghai prices hovered around $136.
That divergence exposed stress between paper pricing and underlying physical demand. Paper markets unwind instantly. Physical markets do not.
Then came the accelerant.
As prices were already falling, exchanges raised margin requirements aggressively. Silver and platinum margins were increased, followed days later by a second wave of hikes. Gold margins jumped by more than 30%, silver by over 35%, with similar moves across platinum and palladium.
Margin hikes force traders to post more collateral immediately. In a falling market, that translates directly into automatic liquidations. This is why the move felt relentless and one-directional. The system itself was forcing positions off.
Finally, a key macro pillar gave way.
For months, metals had benefited from uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership. That ambiguity supported hard assets, as markets priced in aggressive easing and expanded liquidity. When the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming Fed Chair surged, that uncertainty trade ended abruptly.
Warsh is known for his criticism of excessive quantitative easing and prolonged balance sheet expansion. His potential nomination signaled a path of rate cuts paired with tighter balance sheet discipline — a very different outcome from what markets had priced in.
On its own, that shift wouldn’t have caused a crash. But layered on top of historic overextension, extreme leverage, crowded positioning, margin hikes, and a fragile paper market, it became the final catalyst.
This was not a collapse in demand.
It was the consequence of a market stretched too far, too fast, and too confidently — where leverage replaced conviction and liquidity disappeared at the exact moment it was needed most.
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