The last big Financial Crisis started with a lot of gold as a safe haven. It took 6 years after that gold peaked to the Financial Crisis to start the defaults. Something similar, but more aggravated, is what the data is showing today. With gold, silver, platinum, and palladium together rising, it is a safe bet it is most likely not a commodity rally to the normal healthy cycle. When the market is told that growth is to be expected, gold does not spike. When the market is told to expect stability, silver does not rise. This was the environment before 2008, and the default triggers then were on the long dated mortgages. Today, the default triggers are on the long dated sovereign debt. Stress build is historical, and the 2008 stress was the move towards the USD. Today, it is the move away from the USD. The USD has not been the risk bear anymore, and as a method of funding, it is being faded. This is when the investment is made towards real assets. Another point is that today, real assets with real counter risks are rising, and with them the gold and silver. The central banks are being net buyers of real assets, unlike the last global debt catastrophe. It is the USD that is the risk today unlike the last global debt catastrophe. The starting point is no more panic, instead it is the snow ball effects that the system has finally lost a lot of the flexibility. $XAU , $XAG