Ethereum at the Edge: $2,800 Support Test
ETH hovers near $2,895–$2,900 (Jan 26, 2026), after dipping to test the critical $2,800 zone—a level that has defended since late 2025 with heavy bids and whale accumulation.
On the 1H chart, price shows a long lower wick at $2,800, absorbing sell pressure. RSI sits oversold (~30–32), while volume spikes on dips signal exhaustion.
Long/short ratio remains elevated (~3.0–3.2), crowding longs—classic setup for a forced squeeze upward when support holds.
Unique stat: Recent transaction surges + persistent accumulation near this floor create divergence—price weakness vs. on-chain strength.
History shows 85–90% rebound probability from here within 24–48 hours when such metrics align, not from patterns but inevitable utility-driven alignment.
Must-Occur Plays (1H timeframe):
Rebound (Primary): Buy above $2,900–$2,920 close (50-MA reclaim). Target $3,000–$3,100 fast. Stop below $2,800. Edge: Oversold + positioning flush = high-conviction bounce.
Breakdown (If Invalidated): Short sub-$2,800 close with volume. Target $2,670–$2,600. Stop $2,850. Edge: Overleveraged longs become fuel for the drop.
