🚨 BREAKING: U.S. Government Shutdown Risk in 6 Days
Markets are entering a high-uncertainty window. Historically, shutdowns have pushed gold and silver to new highs, while risk assets face elevated pressure.
⚠️ 4 Key Risks to Watch:
1️⃣ Data Blackout
No CPI, no jobs data → policy and risk models lose visibility. Volatility typically reprices higher.
2️⃣ Collateral Shock
Credit stress + shutdown risk may trigger downgrades, pushing repo margins higher and tightening liquidity.
3️⃣ Liquidity Freeze
The RRP buffer is largely depleted. Dealer cash hoarding could strain funding markets.
4️⃣ Recession Risk
Each shutdown week cuts ~0.2% of GDP, potentially tipping a fragile economy into recession.
📉 Key signal:
Watch the SOFR–IORB spread — widening indicates private markets starved for cash.
Market Watch:
• $DUSK : −18.2%
• $ZKC : +6.1%
• $AUCTION : active setup
Bottom line:
Markets are highly sensitive. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and avoid emotional positioning.