When Nvidia pays TSMC, it is not purchasing a commodity. It is paying tribute for access to the only facility on Earth capable of manufacturing its chips.

The pricing power emerges not from contract negotiation but from the absence of alternatives.

Nvidia cannot credibly threaten to take its business elsewhere because elsewhere does not exist at the required capability level.

NVDA and TSM investors are hedged for the wrong disaster.

You're positioned for Taiwan invasion.

The actual threat is gray-zone coercion — and it transmits through a channel your quants don't model:

Japanese life insurers.

Here's the mechanism Wall Street is missing:

¥388 trillion in assets. Hedge ratios at 44.4% — a 14-year low.

When Taiwan stress triggers yen safe-haven flows, J-ICS regulation forces mechanical Treasury selling. Three years of industry profits wiped in a single mark-to-market event.

Your NVDA longs and your Treasury "hedge" crater simultaneously.

The 60/40 portfolio doesn't diversify. It correlates.

The catalyst dates are already hard-coded in MOFCOM announcements:

November 10, 2026 — Rare earth suspension expires November 27, 2026 — Gallium/antimony suspension expires

No new legislation required. No political decision. Just the passage of time.

TSMC makes 90%+ of advanced AI chips. But the CoWoS packaging that turns silicon into functional Blackwell GPUs?

100% Taiwan. Zero Arizona capacity until 2028.

The $500 billion CHIPS Act solves the wrong problem.

This is the $10 trillion repricing hiding in plain sight.

The complete mechanism. The specific trades. The falsification conditions.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Singularity

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