investimento

🚨 DO NOT BUY A HOUSE THIS YEAR — UNLESS YOU’RE ALREADY RICH

If you’re not a billionaire, rent.
Yes, rent.
Buying a house right now is how average people lock themselves into permanent financial mediocrity.
If you want to buy your first home, wait for a 2008-style housing crash.
I’ve seen every cycle — the 2008 collapse, the 2020 blow-off top, and everything in between.
Look at the chart.
The last housing bubble peaked around 266 in 2006.
If you think today’s market is “stable,” you’re not early — you’re late and in denial.
This market isn’t healthy.
It’s frozen.

WHY BUYING IN 2026 IS A TRAP
Redfin data shows 36.8% more sellers than buyers.
Demand is at its weakest level since the 2020 lockdowns.
That’s not a pullback.

👉 That’s a market that has lost momentum.
Most homeowners are locked into ~3% mortgages.
30-year fixed rates are stuck around 6.5%.
Translation?
👉 Nobody can move. Nobody can transact.
There is no real price discovery.
You’re paying full sticker price for an illiquid asset that hasn’t been stress-tested by real volume.
Buying now means:
– Max monthly payment
– Minimal upside
– Peak duration risk
If you’re levered 5:1 on a house that goes sideways for years while you pay 6.5% interest, you’re not “building equity.”
👉 You’re slowly bleeding capital.
Homeownership under these conditions is not an investment.
It’s a liability dressed up as a dream.

THE REAL MACRO PLAY (NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR THIS)
Wait for late 2026 into 2027.
That’s when the “we’ll just wait it out” crowd runs into reality:
– Divorce
– Job loss
– Relocation
– Retirement
– Cash-flow stress
Forced sellers will appear all at once, in a cooling economy.
That’s when prices actually reset.
That’s when patience gets paid.

IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST BUY
Buy like a predator, not a consumer:
– Assume your income drops 20%
– Keep LTV conservative (negative equity kills optionality)
– Only buy if you can survive 10 years of flat or declining prices
If that scares you, you can’t afford the house.