The charts say Bitcoin is losing to the stock market. The "experts" say the rotation from Gold is a fantasy. The Fear & Greed index is at a measly 16.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen isn't sugarcoating it: "Bitcoin's likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market."

The popular theory that gold and silver's rally will trigger a massive crypto rotation? Cowen says it's "probably not going to happen" in the short term.

Current state of the market:

Gold: $5,608 (ATH)

Silver: $121 (ATH)

Bitcoin: $82,859 (down 6% monthly, 7.78% weekly)

Crypto Fear & Greed: 16 (extreme fear)

Citi predicts silver could hit $150 within three months driven by Chinese demand and dollar weakness.

Meanwhile Bitcoin is trading like a tech stock, dumping with risk assets instead of rallying with safe havens.

The Bull Case Still Exists

Pav Hundal from Swyftx sees the setup differently: "We're right on the cusp of where we'd traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin."

His timeline: Bitcoin bottoms historically lag gold's strength by 14 months. That puts the potential bottom in February or March.

"If history repeats, and it is a big if, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days."

Bitwise's Andre Dragosch noted Bitcoin is "trading at a steep discount to gold" as of mid-January, calling these setups "very rare" and suggesting Q1 2026 as a potential turning point.

The Reality

The bull case depends entirely on historical patterns repeating.The bear case depends on recognizing when those patterns break.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold. A safe haven. An inflation hedge.

Right now it's acting like a speculative tech asset that dumps when risk appetite fades.

Gold is doing what safe havens do. Bitcoin isn't.

Either the lag plays out and bulls are vindicated in 40 days, or the narrative just failed its first real stress test.

We'll know soon enough.