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Bitcoin posted a 5.53 percent gain in January. Price is now hovering around 82,853 and moving back toward the 80,600 support level which has not been revisited since the April 2025 pullback

Even though January 2026 disappointed many, February may bring a rebound. This view is not based on blind optimism but on Bitcoin’s historical price behavior, according to data from CryptoRank.
Reviewing Bitcoin’s past 13 years shows that February has been strong in nine of those years. On average, it gained 14.3%, while the median increase sits at 12.2%.
This isn’t just a seasonal trend. Even during the 2023 bear market rebound, February posted a 12.2% gain. In the middle of the 2021 bull run, it jumped 36%. The only major exception was February 2014, right before the crash, which fell 33.7%.
Bitcoin price history proves that red January leads to green February
Bitcoin weakest Januaries often lead to strong Februaries. In 2022, a -16.9% January was followed by a +12.2% February. In 2020, a -8.21% drop bounced back with +21.5%. In 2015, a -32.1% loss was followed by +17.2%, and even after 2018’s crash, BTC gained +5.64% in February.

On one hand, Bitcoin recently slipped below $85,000, but on the other, it’s still trading within the $80,600–$107,000 range it has mostly stayed in since Q2 2025.
The recent 2.12% drop isn’t just minor it’s significant and could shape February’s trend. ETF outflows are still impacting the market, though derivative pressure is easing. If $80,600 holds, a rebound into the $90,000s is both possible and historically likely.
Markets follow patterns, not catchphrases. Looking at 13 years of data, February historically performs well. The chart may look weak, but the past suggests a positive trend.
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Bitcoin gained 5.53% in January, and its price currently hovers around $82,853, moving back toward the $80,600 support level last tested during the April 2025 pullback. While January 2026 may have disappointed some traders, February historically tends to bring a rebound—according to data from CryptoRank, this is more than optimism; it’s a trend backed by over a decade of Bitcoin price behavior.
February: A Historically Strong Month
Reviewing Bitcoin’s price action over the past 13 years reveals that February has been strong in nine of those years. On average, Bitcoin gained 14.3% in February, with a median increase of 12.2%.
This trend holds even during volatile periods. For example:
In the 2023 bear market rebound, Bitcoin gained 12.2% in February.
During the 2021 bull run, February saw a 36% surge.
The only major exception was February 2014, just before the crash, when BTC dropped 33.7%.
Red January, Green February
Historical patterns show that weak Januaries often precede strong Februaries:
2022: -16.9% in January → +12.2% in February
2020: -8.21% in January → +21.5% in February
2015: -32.1% in January → +17.2% in February
2018 post-crash → +5.64% in February
Current Market Context
Bitcoin recently slipped below $85,000 but remains within the $80,600–$107,000 trading range that has defined much of the market since Q2 2025. The recent 2.12% drop is notable—it could influence February’s price action. ETF outflows are still affecting sentiment, though derivative pressures are easing.
If the $80,600 support holds, a rebound into the $90,000s is both possible and historically likely.
Conclusion
Markets follow patterns, not headlines. Looking at 13 years of Bitcoin data, February has consistently been a month of positive momentum. While recent charts may look weak, historical trends suggest February could bring gains.
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About 8.8 billion dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today January 30 2026 making it the first monthly options expiry of the year
It shifts attention back to Bitcoin fight to move back above 90000 as the leading crypto keeps moving farther away from that level.
Options market shows a cautious tone as Bitcoin continues to trade well below the $90,000 level.
Most of today’s exposure is in Bitcoin options worth about 7.54 billion dollars while Ethereum options add another 1.2 billion dollars
Bitcoin is trading near 82,761 which is far under the 90,000 max pain level even with the drop market positioning still looks bullish overall.
Call open interest is at 61,437 contracts versus 29,648 put contracts which brings the put to call ratio down to 0.48 total open interest in bitcoin options is 91,085 contracts showing how large the leverage and positioning is before expiry.

But under the hood trader behavior is turning more defensive analysts at Deribit say that even though Bitcoin is stuck in a range demand for downside protection has jumped sharply going into expiry.

Deribit analysts noted that the need for protection against losses has increased, indicating that traders are being careful, even though overall market bets remain mostly optimistic.
They mentioned that as options approach expiry, price movements around important levels could become more pronounced, particularly near the pain zones, since prices often move toward the maximum pain points at that time.

Lower Volatility and Rising Liquidity Risks Shape the Scene for January Options Expiry
On a macro scale, expected market swings are decreasing. Analysts at Greeks.live report that implied volatility (IV) has been steadily dropping, highlighting a wider phase of consolidation in the crypto markets.
Greeks.live stated that today is the first monthly options expiry of 2026, with more than a quarter of all options positions scheduled to expire.
As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and with no significant events coming up, the market stays quite steady, while implied volatility (IV) keeps falling. Bitcoin’s price movements mirror this calm.
Greeks.live observed that Bitcoin has “slipped back into its consolidation zone in the second half of the month,” with $90,000 serving as strong resistance.
The analysts added that no clear triggers seem likely to end this deadlock, implying that the options expiry could be one of the few short-term factors to drive price changes.
However risks are quietly rising. Greeks.live pointed out that recent big institutional withdrawals to exchanges have heightened liquidity pressures in the crypto market.
US crypto-linked stocks have also fallen, adding to a shift in sentiment that is slowly becoming more negative. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing fear, uncertainty, and doubt, bearish sentiment has steadily strengthened.
Before the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement, some traders had started buying downside protection to guard against short-term volatility, and this trend has continued even after the central bank decided to keep rates unchanged.
With no obvious macro triggers coming soon, traders seem prepared for possible short-term swings around the options expiry, protecting against losses while anticipating a clear move outside Bitcoin’s $80,000 to $90,000 range.
Bitcoin Grip on $90,000 Fades Ahead of $8.8 Billion Options Expiry first appeared on BeInCrypto.
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