🚨 MACRO ALERT: SHUTDOWN RISK + SYSTEMIC STRESS BUILDING 🚨
The U.S. government is just days away from a potential shutdown, and cracks across the financial system are becoming harder to ignore. This isn’t just political noise — key macro signals are flashing stress.
Here’s what markets are watching closely 👇
📉 Liquidity Warning Signs
The Fed’s emergency repo facility just saw a sharp spike, a signal that private lenders are pulling back.
Similar funding stress appeared in the weeks leading up to the 2008 Lehman collapse.
🥇 Risk-Off Rotation
The S&P 500 / Gold ratio has broken below a major support level.
Historically, this shift signals capital moving from risk assets into safety.
📊 Recession Indicators Heating Up
The Sahm Rule (recession trigger) is approaching its danger zone as unemployment trends higher.
Credit card and auto loan delinquencies (90+ days) are at their highest levels since 2011.
Total U.S. household debt is estimated around $18.5T.
🏢 Commercial Real Estate Pressure
Over $800B in CRE debt matures this year.
With rates still elevated, many properties are worth far less than the loans tied to them.
Banks are already offloading exposure quietly.
⚖️ Policy & Leadership Uncertainty
DOJ investigations, political pressure on the Fed, and questions around monetary independence are adding another layer of uncertainty.
🔑 Bottom Line
This setup looks increasingly fragile. When liquidity tightens, risk assets don’t get a warning — they reprice fast. Volatility is likely to stay elevated as markets navigate shutdown risk, funding stress, and slowing growth.
Stay cautious. Manage risk. Watch liquidity.
