The U.S. Government Shutdown Is Becoming the Base Case

This risk is no longer remote.

Prediction markets now price a U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31 as the most likely outcome, not a tail event.

Negotiations are stalled.

DHS funding is frozen.

Deadlines don’t bend.

Why it matters:

This is economic risk markets haven’t priced in yet.

Right now: • Prediction markets are flashing warning signals

• Traditional markets remain calm

That disconnect never lasts.

Either expectations reset —

or asset prices do.

When political risk shifts from noise to hard deadlines, markets don’t drift.

They reprice abruptly.

The signals are already there.

They’re just quiet.

And in markets, the quiet warnings are usually the most dangerous.

#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat #SouthKoreaSeizedBTCLoss $BTC

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