🚨 U.S. SHUTDOWN RISK FLASHING RED 🚨
Washington gridlock is tightening fast. Prediction markets are now signaling a ~77% probability of a U.S. government shutdown, putting real economic friction on the table as funding deadlines approach.
What this actually means • Federal workers and contractors face payment delays
• Government programs and approvals could stall
• Business confidence weakens as policy visibility fades
• Market participants shift into risk-management mode
Why markets are paying attention Shutdown risk isn’t just noise. Even brief shutdowns have historically: • Slowed near-term growth momentum
• Increased equity and bond volatility
• Pressured the USD through uncertainty channels
With spending negotiations stuck and time running out, this has become a macro risk event, not a political headline. If resolution comes late—or not at all—expect sharp reactions across rates, FX, and risk assets.
Bottom line: politics is turning into a market catalyst again. Stay alert, manage exposure, and watch headlines closely.
