$MORPHO
MORPHOUSDT — Retesting Breakdown Level in Macro Bear Market
MORPHOUSDT is trading at $1.2130, retesting the $1.22 resistance level after a sharp -12.7% weekly decline. This move represents a classic retest of a breakdown level within a brutal macro bear trend, down -88% over the last six months. The bounce lacks conviction and volume, suggesting it is a weak relief rally to be faded.
Trade Plan (Short - Failed Retest of Breakdown)
Entry (Short): $1.210 – $1.205 (on a clear rejection and reversal from the $1.22 resistance, signaled by a bearish 4H candle close).
Target 1: $1.180 – $1.175 (immediate support and the recent swing low).
Target 2: $1.150 – $1.140 (next major support zone and the 0.618 Fib retracement of the recent bounce).
Stop Loss: $1.225 (above the weekly resistance and the 24h high).
My View
The macro chart is a disaster. Retests of breakdowns in such powerfully bearish structures are high-probability selling opportunities. This bounce is likely driven by short covering, not genuine demand. The most probable path is a swift rejection that leads to a retest and eventual break of the recent lows. This setup is for swing traders with a bearish bias. Wait for the rejection to confirm—a 4H close back below $1.208 would be a strong entry signal.
