Alternative Scenario: If This Is Not Supercycle V
(Note: The Supercycle V label comes from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of Supercycle III, 15,476–126,200, which exactly hits 80,600–84,450 as a low — a textbook IV Fibonacci.) jika ini valid sebagai impuls maka tentu tidak akan jatuh ke bawah. tetapi menuju ATH lama atau melewati nya.
If the current structure is not Supercycle V, then the decline from 126,200 to 84,450 should be interpreted as Wave A of a higher-degree corrective phase, with the leg down to 80,600–84,450 representing only Wave A.
Wave A range:
126,200 → 84,450
Total movement = 41,750 points
Based on Fibonacci retracement of Wave A, the projected levels for Wave B are:
38.2% retracement → 100,450
50% retracement → 105,325
61.8% retracement → 110,200
Wave C Projections
Assuming Wave C is equal to Wave A (standard ABC correction):
If B = 38.2% retracement (100,389) → C = 58,639
If B = 50% retracement (105,325) → C = 63,575
If B = 61.8% retracement (110,252) → C = 68,502
For an extended Wave C (1.618× Wave A):
1.618 × 41,750 = 67,457
Extended targets:
B = 100,389 → C = 32,932
B = 105,325 → C = 37,868
B = 110,252 → C = 42,795
Structural Implications
If the market is forming a normal ABC correction, Wave B typically retraces 38.2%–61.8%, placing the most technically valid resistance zone between 100,000 and 110,000.
If the structure is a classic zigzag, Wave B is usually shallower, commonly retracing 38.2%–50%, limiting the upside to approximately 100,000–105,000.
Conclusion :
Current price is 92500.
Any rally into the 100k–110k region should be approached cautiously unless confirmed by impulsive structure and volume expansion. Otherwise, this zone represents a high-probability distribution area before Wave C resumes to the downside. So let's watch the price action and adjust your trading strategy.
