filecoin

Filecoin Hashrate Plunges Off a Cliff, Entering a Death Spiral! FIL Price Will Only Keep Dropping, Unless These 4 Turning Points Emerge!

January 23, 2026 – 43-day FIL data: Filecoin network hashrate fell below 19 EiB, down by 1,363 PiB — a historic low! Total number of nodes dropped below 1,000; daily circulating supply increased by 410,000 FIL, with massive hashrate early terminations and pledge releases, more than 10 million FIL flowing into the market, creating enormous selling pressure!

In fact, from October 30, 2025 to December 11, 2025 (41 days): Filecoin network hashrate fell below 20 EiB, down by 1,907 PiB.

That means, over the past 84 days, Filecoin hashrate has decreased by a total of 3,270 PiB, with actual physical storage capacity dropping to only 2.26 EiB.

FIL price remains persistently depressed and is likely to stay low for quite some time, because a large amount of hashrate will continue to expire without renewal, and many providers are proactively terminating sectors to retrieve their pledges. The core reason is that FIL price has fallen below the storage cost threshold (triggering the mining shutdown price). Storage providers are operating at a loss and are forced to shut down hashrate. This leads to continuous hashrate decline → weak ecosystem → no real usage scenarios or pledge demand → more and more tokens flowing into the market → price keeps dropping! A vicious cycle — also known as a death spiral!

(The key driver of the 2020–2022 price surge was the massive FIL pledge demand from cold storage mining, combined with very low circulating supply — supply could not meet demand. Now the situation is exactly the opposite.)

Some people say: Will the on-chain storage FOC launched by Filecoin in 2025, along with other hot storage solutions, increase real usage scenarios and boost FIL demand, ultimately saving the price? In reality, usage is extremely scarce — mostly just splinter groups spun off from Protocol Labs using it internally, or the occasional unknown project. No major Web3 platforms or off-chain large-scale users are adopting it — at least not yet. Indeed, this is one possible breakthrough point (turning point) for saving FIL, but so far there has been no meaningful progress.

Another potential turning point is if the Filecoin Foundation (FF) starts actively managing or pumping the price, or brings in professional market-making teams. However, FF is constrained by all kinds of rules and regulations (claiming U.S. legal restrictions, etc.), stubbornly tying their own hands. They spend tens of millions of dollars every year on various activities, but never really use the money where it matters most. (All this money comes from selling FIL — which means dumping on the market, and every dump causes the price to crash even harder.) As a result, despite spending so much, FIL price keeps falling. This is entirely due to wrong strategic decisions by FF!

A third possible turning point is if super whales / major players step in to accumulate and pump the price. Currently there are 818 million FIL in circulating supply — manipulating it would require enormous capital. Moreover, many holders are just waiting to sell; every pump is quickly followed by a sharp drop, forming inverted V-shaped patterns, which shows extremely heavy selling pressure. The best-case scenario would be FF cooperating with super whales to jointly manage the market. (Insider info: In the past, market-making teams approached Juan Benet asking Protocol Labs to lock up tokens and reduce circulating supply to facilitate a pump, but Juan refused.)

The final and most powerful turning point would be a global storage crisis — widespread destruction or failure of centralized storage systems, forcing everyone to migrate to Filecoin for storage. Otherwise, mature and stable centralized cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud offer perfect after-sales service. Almost no one is willing to take the risk of using Filecoin for storage — it’s hard to use, unreliable, and simply unnecessary. (If Filecoin data doesn’t have sufficient backups and is stored in only one data center, it can still be deleted or lost due to failures — it’s actually pseudo-decentralized storage.)

In summary: Filecoin hashrate is collapsing, massive pledged FIL is flooding the market, circulating float keeps increasing, inflation continues, supply far exceeds demand — price will only keep falling! At least for now, no recovery is in sight — unless at least one of the above turning points actually materializes!

This is an objective analysis of the facts — for reference only!

Wish everyone good luck — once you bet, accept the outcome. No regrets after the die is cast!
#fil $FIL l #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil