fedwatch2025

$BTC FedWatch Market Probabilities (CME Tool)
Markets that track Fed funds futures — via the CME FedWatch Tool — are pricing the likelihood of policy changes at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Recent probability estimates show:
• Very high odds of no change (hold) at January 2026 meeting: Market models indicate that majorities of traders believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the current level rather than cut or raise them this week. �
Phemex
• Modest chances of future cuts later in 2026: Looking beyond January, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in early 2026 (e.g., March) is significantly higher than for January — reflecting some expectations that easing could return if inflation softens further and economic data weaken. �
Phemex
(Note: exact percentages vary across outlets, with some showing ~75–80% odds of a hold and sub-25% odds of a cut for the January meeting — but no strong expectation of a rate hike at this point.) �
MEXC
#FedWatch #FedWatchb #FedWatch2025

🔥 Gold & Silver Are Flashing a Global Alarm 🔥
This isn’t a normal rally — it’s a warning.

Precious metals are exploding upward, but the speed of this move tells a deeper story.
🟡 Gold: ~$5,050
⚪ Silver: ~$108
Silver jumping 7%+ in one session is not healthy price action. This looks less like bullish confidence and more like panic protection.
📊 Derivatives Market Confirms the Stress:
• $XAU /USDT → 5,046 (+0.04%)
• $XAG /USDT → 108.81 (+4.08%)

Silver is leading aggressively — a classic sign that fear is spreading faster than optimism.

🌍 Physical Markets Are Screaming Even Louder:
• 🇨🇳 China → ~$134/oz silver
• 🇯🇵 Japan → ~$139/oz silver
That premium isn’t random.
It reflects tight supply, rising demand, and distrust in paper markets.
🏦 The Fed Has No Easy Exit:
• ✂️ Rate cuts → Gold could sprint toward $6,000
• 🧊 Hold rates → Pressure builds on stocks & real estate
Either path carries pain.
💡 Market Message:
Gold is quietly saying “preserve wealth.”
Silver is shouting “something is breaking.”
When metals move like this, it’s not speculation —
it’s capital running for safety.
⏳ The next few sessions could define the trend. Stay alert. 👀🔥
#Gold #Silver #XAUUSDT #XAGUSDT #SafeHaven #FedWatch2025 #DollarIndexHighestSinceJuly #HardAssets #BinanceSquare

🏦 The Market Has Fully Priced In a 100% Chance of a Fed Rate Cut Next Week

But the cut itself isn’t the story —
the signal behind it is.

When the market prices in a move at 100%, it means expectations have replaced uncertainty.
So the real surprise isn’t if the Fed cuts…
It’s what happens after.

⸻

💡 Rate cuts are easy to predict.
Liquidity shifts are not.

Because rate cuts ≠ liquidity injections.
The real story lives in:
• System reserves
• Repo markets
• Credit spreads

⸻

In past cycles, policy led liquidity.
Today, liquidity leads policy.

Markets move first.
The Fed follows signals they don’t want to see.

⸻

📊 For traders, this setup means:
• Price in early before the move
• Fade the post-cut rally
• Track real liquidity metrics:
ON RRP, TGA, and bank reserves.

👉 Flow matters more than the Fed.

⸻

25bps vs 50bps doesn’t change direction —
it changes the tone.
• 25bps = “We’re cautious.”
• 50bps = “We’re behind.”

The message drives momentum.

⸻

When everyone expects the cut,
the market shifts focus to what comes next — liquidity.

Policy sets the narrative.
Liquidity sets the trend.

And this time,
traders are one step ahead of the Fed.

$BNB #BinanceSquare #CryptoMarkets #VietCryptoNews #bitcoin #FedWatch2025